Was Anyone Really Surprised When Mr. Wallenda Fell?

Photograph by MoonSoleil/Conny Liegl

The Flying Wallenda’s were tightrope daredevils who performed without a safety net. Having perfected the 7 person human pyramid over 50 years of performing they became the most famous high wire circus act of the 20th century. In a 1963 performance two of the family fell to their deaths.

Some people were surprised.

In the middle of this decade the availability of no-doc, 45 year, 105 % cash back at closing, adjustable rate home loans made the market prices soar. Having perfected the art of packaging tens of millions of loans by stuffing in the junk with the good stuff, shares of junk bonds backed by homes spread all over the world. The American savings rate is down to zero.

In 2008 the realization dawned that this meant some people had “already sold their house to the bank” and they were “upside down”. Irrational panic followed and several large companies fell to their deaths.

Some people were surprised.

Human nature is to follow the lemming in front of you and don’t ask any questions. Safety in numbers. We have a media which tends to make news where there isn’t any. And don’t even mention talk radio. They would make you think the boom times were normal and would never end. Now we have gone the other way and are talking ourselves right off the cliff. You read stats saying this or that is “36% Down”. Of course it is, we were on an all time high. Now we are going down. It’s a simple rhythm, like the tide. Up then Down.

Some lost sight of cycle when it was at the top. Now they are losing sight of the cycle when it’s at the bottom. From Irrational Euphoria to sheer Adrenaline Panic.

Those of us beyond gen x and y have seen worse than this. What’s different this time is the media carnival overplaying the situation. Remember Y2K ? It was brought to you by the news media. Remember how they said the electricity, the banks and all computers would fail at midnight on December 31, 1999 ? Remember what happened ? Nothing. Next time you read a Newsweek comparison to the Great Depression keep that in mind.

We also remember Robert Vesco, Michael Milliken and the junk bonds, the crash of 1987, the crash of 1999 (most have forgotten that one) and of course the dip after 911. We are still here and those of us who didn’t try to perform the 7 person human pyramid on a tightrope are doing fine.

This is the prediction of a seasoned observer - the media that magnifies and spins so well will turn from obsessing on the negative to finding the positive some time after the new President gets in. They will fulfill their own prophecy which they spun before the election. We will rally, once again, as we always have.

Chuck Carey is the principal of Carey Commercial, a Hyannis, MA based business and investment property brokerage firm serving Cape Cod, MA. Through his more than twenty years of professional involvement in the local marketplace, he is widely regarded as one of a small number of commercial brokers offering the level of experience and pragmatic perspective clients require as they address the dynamics of changing market cycles.

Sales Figures Reflect Softening Cape Cod Commercial Real Estate Sector

A total of 145 qualified commercial real estate sales transpired on Cape Cod from January - September 2008. The latest figures amount to a 23.3% decline from the level achieved in the same nine month period in 2007. The 2008 drop is also about 42% below the 12-year average of 250 sales and the lowest period to period total since 1997.

Quarterly figures reveal the deceleration in the number of sales was evenly spread out among each quarter. The quarterly data also shows in both in 2007 and 2008, first quarter activity once again fell below Quarter II sales volume. This is significant in that, except for 2006, at no time since 1997 has the number of sales in Quarter II been lower than the prior Quarter I total.

Excluding the Outer Cape sub region (Provincetown, Truro and Wellefleet) which achieved a small gain, the remaining three Cape Cod sub regions posted moderate decreases in the number of commercial property transactions. The greatest fall off, however, was in the Upper Cape sub region which experienced a sharp 49% decrease in year over year transaction volume, nearly double the countywide percentage decline.

The Mid Cape sub region once again posted the highest number of transactions (63) for the nine month period. According to the data, the Mid Cape sub region has held the top ranking in each consecutive three quarter period since 1997, until being closely edged out by the Upper Cape sub region in 2007 with 72 qualified sales.

Joseph P. Egan is a MA Certified General Real Estate Appraiser with over 25 years of professional valuation experience. Through a specialization in commercial real estate and closely-held businesses, since 1991 he has completed over 600 appraisal, brokerage and consulting assignments concerning all types of commercial real estate assets and going concerns located on Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Plymouth County, MA. Clients served generally include attorneys, banks, corporations, developers, investors, and owners of closely-held and family businesses. Prior to relocating to Cape Cod, Joe worked in the New York Metro Area and throughout CT with leading regional and national appraisal firms such as Cushman & Wakefield. Please contact Joe here.

Note: Qualified sales generally include arms length commercial real estate sales and exclude transactions such as those involving governmental agencies, conveyances among related or affiliated parties, partition or other court ordered sales, and at least for the time being foreclosure sales in most cases (although they are separated tracked). Excluded property types generally include small multi-family dwellings, agricultural properties, multi-unit residential developments, nursing homes, and lodging properties with fewer than four guest units.

Will Breaker Trip on Hyannis Circuit City Store?

HYANNIS, MA - The Wall Street Journal reported today Circuit City Stores, Inc. is considering a plan which will shutter at least 150 stores and result in the loss of thousands of jobs. Reportedly, the nation’s No. 2 electronic retailer has engaged various legal and industry experts as the firm explores alternatives to filing for bankruptcy protection. (WSJ)