September 7, 2010

For Many the Right Buyer is Close at Hand

Finding the Right BuyerA review of recent transaction activity since September 2008 reveals an interesting insight for Cape Cod commercial property and business sellers looking for the right buyer: your buyer may just someone you already know.

In far more than a handful of recent deals involving all kinds of commercial properties and Cape Cod businesses, the buyer has been someone the seller knows or is affiliated.

Most often this association is rooted in an existing business, landlord-tenant or employment relationship. In many other instances the buyer just happened to be an adjacent property or business owner.  In business sales, an amicable deal with a competitor or supplier has brought some others to the closing table.

It appears these deals are being struck as private “off-market” transactions suggesting the phrase, “When you’re ready to sell, let me know.  I may be interested,”  is paying off for many motivated buyers.

Naturally, the primary reason why these buyers are particularly motivated is the synergistic benefit the opportunity typically offers. Since the property or business is familiar to the buyer, the lower degree of pre-purchase due diligence can be an added incentive. Bankers seem to be willing to warm up to these types of transactions as well. For some, dealing direct and the potential to save on transaction costs are often perceived as another mutual benefit.

Despite what appears to be a favorable outcome, there is some downside to selling to someone you know under a private transaction.  

First, whether a business or property sale, choosing not to expose the opportunity to the open market will limit the chances of obtaining a maximum price and optimum terms which would otherwise be achieved through competitive bidding among multiple buyers. 

Second, experience has shown that private sales tend to begin with some general conversation on the topic and then quickly ramp up from there. Absent proper planning and pricing this can put both parties in an awkward and sometimes untenable situation where they eventually ask, “How did we get here and this fast?” 

Sound financial planning, legal and valuation assistance is the best hedge against these risks. 

For motivated commercial property and business sellers looking to privately transact with someone they know, the take away here is this:

The prospective buyer is likely to have a unique benefit to leverage and a solid familiarity of your business or property. And to be confident you are striking the right deal, be sure to first obtain proper financial, legal and valuation assistance.

Joseph P. Egan is a MA Certified General Real Estate Appraiser with over 25 years of professional valuation experience. Through a specialization in commercial real estate and closely-held businesses, since 1991 he has completed over 600 appraisal, brokerage and consulting assignments concerning all types of commercial real estate assets and going concerns located on Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Plymouth County, MA. Clients served generally include attorneys, banks, corporations, developers, investors, and owners of closely-held and family businesses. Prior to relocating to Cape Cod, Joe worked in the New York Metro Area and throughout CT with leading regional and national appraisal firms such as Cushman & Wakefield. Please contact Joe here.

Cape Cod Commercial Real Estate Prices and Assessments Inconsistent

Whether you are a buyer, seller, broker, banker, or appraiser no doubt the recent decline in Cape Cod commercial real estate sales has made pricing or valuing a property much more difficult. As we entrench deeper in the current market cycle, many practitioners needing a continuous finger on the pulse of prices and values will creatively apply alternative methodologies. In our market area, in lieu of an appraisal or other formal analysis the leading and most time honored proxy for real estate pricing or valuing is the property’s municipal assessment. 

I thought it would be interesting to see how this anecdotal alternative has measured up recently by comparing recent Cape Cod commercial property sale prices with their respective assessed value. The data sets included sales prices from 93 transactions completed between January 2008 and June 2008 and their Fiscal Year 2008 assessments. The properties sold were located throughout all areas of Cape Cod. This is what the analysis revealed:

  • Nearly 30% of the recorded sale prices were below the assessed value and the remaining 70% were transacted at sale prices above the prevailing assessed value.
  • In 17.4% of the transactions, the sale price and assessed value fell within 10% above or below 100% of the assessed value.
  • Among all transactions, sale prices were on average 128.5% higher than the Fiscal Year 2008 assessments. The median was 120.5% higher.

As the analysis shows, property assessments are often an unreliable proxy for establishing a reasonable price or market value of Cape Cod commercial real estate. The analysis doesn’t suggest the assessments are flawed or established superficially. Additionally, assessing professionals I have encountered throughout the region are among the most astute, capable and concientious practitioners I have encountered in my 25 years in the real estate business. What’s more, assessed values are established for a unique purpose incorporating special criteria, specific time frames and statutory guidelines.

In a market cycle where the number of Cape Cod commercial property sales are trending down, price levels are in a state of flux and property assessments provide inconsistent guidance, where do we turn?

In short, I suggest doing what always produces superior results in a challenging market: adopt a back to the basics mindset where there is no substitute for well developed, comprehensive market intelligence and a willingness to devote more time investigating and truly understanding key market nuances.

 Joseph P. Egan is a MA Certified General Real Estate Appraiser with over 25 years of professional valuation experience. Through a specialization in commercial real estate and closely-held businesses, since 1991 he has completed over 600 appraisal, brokerage and consulting assignments concerning all types of commercial real estate assets and going concerns located on Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Plymouth County, MA. Clients served generally include attorneys, banks, corporations, developers, investors, and owners of closely-held and family businesses. Prior to relocating to Cape Cod, Joe worked in the New York Metro Area and throughout CT with leading regional and national appraisal firms such as Cushman & Wakefield. Please contact Joe here.

A Price to Pay for Too Much Focus on Price?

In navigating the cross currents of the Cape Cod commercial real estate marketplace it seems many commercial real estate participants are missing the big picture by focusing too much on price levels. Much like an adept physician seeking to develop a timely and supportable prognosis by probing, prodding and questioning a patient, reliably deciphering market factors requires looking well beyond the leading indicators or “gimmies” such as price levels. Along with the seasoned physician, this is where the commercial real estate market participant’s cognitive skill comes fully into play!  

Certainly recent prices paid for similar Cape Cod commercial properties will always be relevant indicators. However, the most important thing to remember about real estate prices — like cherished school photographs taken in early September and eventually passed on to relatives months later at Christmas – much can change in between! Since real estate transactions often take many months to consumate, report and be acknowledged by the marketplace much can and will change in between. It’s no wonder real estate prices are what economists call a classic lagging indicator. Couple this fact with the forward thinking and “not at real time” nature of real estate markets, the inherent limitations from an over reliance on price levels are apparent. 

In a market cycle where the number of commercial real estate sales are trending down, price levels are in a state of flux,  and the supply of available properties is abundant, it’s no wonder the real estate market is an imperfect marketplace.

But given the current scenario where do we turn, beyond price levels, for more answers in this imperfect or unstructured marketplace? In short, I suggest back going to the basics where greater reliance is collectively placed on four additional key market indicators:

  1. Contract prices for properties currently under agreement.
  2. Regularly updated figures on transaction volume with demand ranked by property sector.
  3. Familiarity with sensibly priced comparable listings with a sharp focus on the number of days-on-market, any history of price changes, and possibly the number of showings and feedback.
  4. Most importantly, obtaining from a reliable source the who, what, where, when, how and why surrounding any pending or closed transaction. Sources may include the Buyer or Seller, an attorney, broker, tenant or other party.  And in the current tight credit market, consider the perspective of a trusted local commercial banker to be invaluable.

Clearly seeing the big picture beyond price levels, understanding all the moving parts and applying sound investigative skills will separate you from the pack in the coming market cycle. Over reliance on one piece of information such as price levels is essentially reaching for the low hanging fruit and a sure sign of hanging on to 2004-2007 market thinking. The times (and the market), they are a changin!

 Joseph P. Egan is a MA Certified General Real Estate Appraiser with over 25 years of professional valuation experience. Through a specialization in commercial real estate and closely-held businesses, since 1991 he has completed over 600 appraisal, brokerage and consulting assignments concerning all types of commercial real estate assets and going concerns located on Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Plymouth County, MA. Clients served generally include attorneys, banks, corporations, developers, investors, and owners of closely-held and family businesses. Prior to relocating to Cape Cod, Joe worked in the New York Metro Area and throughout CT with leading regional and national appraisal firms such as Cushman & Wakefield. Please contact Joe here.

Cape Cod Commercial Real Estate: Transactions Down, Gross Sales Volume Up

 The maturing Cape Cod commercial real estate marketplace reflected staying power in the first four months of 2008 despite some ups and downs.

Number of Transaction Continues Declining Trend

The number of commercial real estate transactions recorded on Cape Cod, MA through April 2008 was 25.4% lower compared with January-April 2007. This recent downshift follows a 39.3% drop in the first four months of 2007 and was the second largest decrease since 2000. Although notable, the lower YTD 2008 decline suggests the softened demand is moderating. Between 1999 and 2008, the median January – April change in the number of individual transactions was -10.6%.

While most sectors reflected comparable year-to-year demand levels, the recent decline was clearly at the expense of softening in the commercial condominium and vacant land sectors. Total YTD 2008 transactions were evenly distributed in each of the four months with a favorable burst in month end closings experienced in April.

Gross Sales Up Boosted by Investor Acquisitions

Despite the slide in property closings, total YTD 2008 commercial property sale prices reached $85.2 million which was nearly $28.0 million higher than the level achieved in the same period in 2007. The January-April 2008 total commercial property sales volume represented about 9.5% of the total stated value (greater than $50,000) reported by the Barnstable County Registry of Deeds for all property sales in the same period. 

Boosting the total dollar volume was the higher number of investment property acquisitions which included two net leased CVS pharmacies, two shopping centers and a reported sale of Bass River Marina in West Dennis, MA. Collectively, these five sales gave the market a $42.8 million injection. A solid and proportionately higher percentage of $1.0 million plus commercial transactions completed by able funded buyers kept the YTD 2008 dollar volume at a favorable level as well.  

The Take Away

Transaction levels may well continue to erode but less precipitously. Investors and well capitalized cash flow buyers will continue to pattern the national trend toward a flight to quality. Limitations on the available supply of assets of this caliber, including attractive sale-leaseback deals will be an issue for buyers. Owners of quality assets, however, will likely be in a good position to respond to this demand trend.